Philippines GDP Growth Forecast 2025 2026 is becoming more important for investors who want to understand how the economy may move over the next two years. After the post pandemic rebound and a period of tight monetary policy, many institutions now expect growth to stay in the mid 5 percent range.
1. Recent performance
The World Bank estimates that real GDP grew about 5.6 percent in 2024.
In the first quarter of 2025, growth came in around 5.4 percent year on year.
Inflation has eased and is now moving around the lower end of the BSP’s 2 to 4 percent target range. Recent readings are close to 1.7 percent. The BSP expects average inflation to stay near 1.7 to 2.0 percent in 2025 if food and fuel prices remain stable.
With steady growth and cooler inflation, the current environment provides a relatively calm starting point for the next two years.
2. Forecasts for 2025 and 2026
IMF
The IMF expects real GDP growth of about 5.4 percent in 2025 and around 5.7 percent in 2026.
World Bank
The World Bank projects growth of roughly 5.3 percent in 2025 and 5.4 percent in 2026.
ADB
The Asian Development Bank forecasts 5.6 percent growth in 2025 and about 5.7 percent in 2026.
Government
The Philippine government targets 5.5 to 6.5 percent growth in 2025 and 6 to 7 percent in 2026.
When compared together, most forecasts cluster near 5.4 percent in 2025 and about 5.6 percent in 2026. This suggests stable expansion, though below the government’s goals.
3. Factors supporting growth
Consumption and services
Household consumption remains the main engine of the economy. Remittances, easing inflation, and a young population help keep spending steady. Tourism, retail, and BPO services continue to support overall activity.
Investment
Infrastructure projects under Build Better More and reforms to attract foreign investment add to both public and private sector spending.
External environment
Global demand remains soft, but the Philippines benefits from diversified export markets and ongoing participation in regional trade agreements.
4. Main risks
Global slowdown
Trade tensions and weaker global growth may affect electronics exports, tourism flows, and remittances.
Peso volatility
The peso has been moving near record lows around 59 per dollar. This helps remittance purchasing power but can add inflation pressure and affect investor confidence if volatility increases.
Climate shocks
Typhoons and weather related disruptions can affect agriculture and delay infrastructure projects. These events often lower quarterly growth.
5. Implications for equity and REIT investors
Areas that may perform well
- Consumer companies that benefit from stable domestic spending
- Banks as loan demand slowly improves
- Property developers and REITs as occupancy and rental trends normalise
Areas facing more pressure
- Export oriented firms that depend on global electronics demand
- Highly leveraged companies sensitive to currency swings
6. Currency and bond outlook
The BSP is expected to ease policy slowly while inflation stays near the lower end of the target range. This supports local bonds, although the peso is likely to remain sensitive to external movements.
Real yields remain attractive because inflation expectations are well anchored.
7. How investors can use these forecasts
- Treat mid 5 percent growth as the baseline scenario for planning investments
- Identify which holdings depend most on domestic demand, interest rates, or the peso
- Prepare alternative scenarios around global trade tensions and possible climate events
Summary
Most major institutions expect the Philippines to grow a little above 5 percent in both 2025 and 2026. Consumption, remittances, services, and infrastructure remain the main drivers. The major risks come from global conditions, currency movements, and weather related disruptions. For investors, the environment suggests selective opportunities in consumer sectors, financials, and parts of the property market, while export and highly leveraged firms require more caution.